My Take -> Week 1

Greetings, G-Force.

The anticipation is eating at me. The Packers, who are one year older than the NFL, prepare for their 100th season. Launching #100 against the hated Bears. For that, I give thanks as I listen to the Jimmy Cliff “Give Thanx” album.

Here are my quick vibes from the last week:

If Aaron Jones can master the art of pass blocking, he might become a top 5 back in the league. He has Rodgers’ trust. He has great vision. He has Quick feet. He has good hands. He has natural instincts as a runner that you simply can’t teach. But, he has to learn how to pass block.

As people, we all have quirky components that make us individuals. Some watch sitcoms. Some post videos or pictures of themselves to social media. Me? I listen to music and watch football - often times on mute. I scour college games in hopes of finding an up and coming prospect. In college, I loved Vince Biegel. Biegel failing in GB is exactly why I would never be qualified to be a scout. I was POSITIVE that he could play in the NFL. When drafted, I thought he was a 4th round steal. Instead, he was brutal. I try to pretend that I have a clue. I don’t.

The depth at OLB is overly concerning. I wish they’d sign Nate Orchard. I liked him coming out of college. He was injured early on, but he’s healthy now. He’d bring a physical presence to the EDGE and he showed pass rushing skills at the college level. Hau'oli Kikaha was a dominant OLB in college. I wish the Packers would take a look at him, too.

The Packers have tremendous talent on the DL. But, with the limited depth at OLB and with the Matthews & Perry injury histories; we could eventually see some version of a 3-2-6, a 4-2-5 or a 3-3-5. With that said, it might make sense to add depth on the DL.
Anthony Zettel is a proven pass rushing specialist. I hope the Packers claim him if no one puts in a waiver claim before them. Zettel isn't a game changer, but he's a hard worker who will apply pressure on the QB. Zettel won't be dropping into coverage, but he should be able to hold the edge in the run game and he'd be an experienced high-effort performer on the edge.

I’m happy that the Packers kept the young WRs. Tonyan at TE, too. All have humongous upside and offer great versatility to the offense. We might not see much of them early, but they’ll progress as the season ages and I’m confident that we will see Tonyan, ESB and MVS catching balls before the end of the year.

Kudos to James Crawford. He earned his roster spot. I had him pegged for the practice squad. He was close to getting home on a couple of inside blitzes throughout the preseason. But, he won with Special Teams. And, because of his efforts, he'll likely be active on GameDay early in the season.

Raven Greene also stepped up and earned himself a roster spot. He's showed quickness and a decent burst out of his breaks to pass defend.

Trevor Davis is on the active roster -- for now. And, while he's on the roster, expect to see him as a gunner on special teams and as the primary Kickoff and Punt Returner. Yes, he coughs up the ball and he's unimpressive as a WR, but he has been the best returner that we have one the roster.

It didn't get much attention, but a move that piqued my interest was when Gutekunst added Tony Brown to the Practice Squad. I was high on him coming out of college. Here's what I wrote: "Tony Brown, Alabama. Round 5-6. Dude flies. He ran a 4.35 40. Can play on the inside and the outside. Looks really strong. He's carved up. Should be an immediate star as a gunner on special teams. Like most Alabama CB's, he's willing to step up and take on a ball carrier as well. Wasn't much a factor in the turnover game." It wouldn't shock me to see him on the active roster at some point.

Heading into the 2018 Regular Season opener, I’m not as bullish as others. I see the Packers finishing 9-7 this year. The Packers will have to rely on Aaron Rodgers to bail them out late in games. I’m concerned about the depth on the OL, at ILB and at OLB. We’ve historically had health issues at OLB and OL and Burks is already banged up at ILB. Further, I’m really concerned about our play at Safety. There are areas of the team that will get exposed. We will see growing pains with our young CB’s, too. Regardless, I fully expect to watch an entertaining team during a transition season. The Packers will be a fun team to watch, but my sense is that we win less games than most are projecting. I’m hoping for 10 because if this team can make the playoffs, they should be in a position to be extremely dangerous.

Regardless of wins and losses, I'm under the impression that this team will be fascinating to watch. The Packers roster has a healthy amount of returning stars to bring familiarity to the roster. The Packers roster has a talented draft class that brings a mix of enthusiasm for the future and hope that they can make an immediate impact. The Packers roster has enough veteran Free Agent signings to bring confidence that the locker room will remain strong and that the new acquisitions will add game changing plays throughout the season. But, depth is a major concern on this roster.

It's beyond critical for the Packers to start the season 2-0. Both home games. Both against Division foes. The Packers must win them both or they'll be staring at an uphill climb throughout the season.

It's Bear Week. Week 1. At Lambeau Field. On Sunday Night Football. If that doesn't get you stoked, then you're not an NFL fan. Wildly, the NFL's oldest rivalry has an unfamiliar look. While the Packers have added a number of new players, a new defensive coordinator and a new offensive coordinator; the Bears have a new Head Coach, a new Offensive Coordinator and they've added a number of high priced Free Agents. The Bears are built to contend in the NFC North this year. And, frankly, they better. The Bears do not have a 1st round pick over the next two years. They don't have a second round pick this year and they'll be without a 3rd round pick the following year. Further, as of now, the Packers are nearly $15.5 million more under the cap than the Bears. Presently, the Packers are $39,284,649 under the 2019 cap; while the Bears are $23,841,114 under the cap. Additionally, the Packers are armed with two first round picks in next years draft. I admire the Bears aggressive approach towards Free Agency and the Mack trade, but the Bears better win now.

Mitch Trubisky will be the Bears starting QB. Is it me or has he already been crowned the Bears savior? Trubisky has a lot of unproven talent. He's athletic. He can throw on the run. But, let's be honest, he completed 59% of his passes, he threw 7 TD's and 7 interceptions and he averaged 6.6 yards per attempt. I understand that the Bears are pining for a QB that they hail as their own and I agree that Trubisky has a bunch of attractive qualities. However, prior to crowning him a savior, he needs to win football games. Trubisky has been given a plethora of weapons. The Bears spent significant money on Allen Robinson, Taylor Gabriel and Trey Burton. Former first round pick, Kevin White, is finally healthy. The Bears also traded up to acquire Anthony Miller in the 2nd round of this years draft. Robinson was a top 5 WR in the league before he blew out his ACL. Gabriel has given the Packers troubles on the deep ball in the past. Burton will have an opportunity to showcase his skills as the premier TE in the Bears offense. He has the talent, but he's sometimes not mentally focused. Trubisky will have weapons, a new system and no excuses. He has to win.

With Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen, the Bears have an intriguing 1-2 combo at RB. Howard will pound it at you and wear down the defense. Cohen is a speed demon. I anticipate that the Bears will use Cohen in motion. We'll see Cohen lined up all over the field. He'll catch screens. He'll be spread out wide. The Bears might try to use Cohen in a somewhat similar fashion to how Kansas City uses Tyreek Hill on gimmick plays.

The Bears OL can be beaten. Charles Leno and Bobby Massie can both be pushed around. Nick Perry has to beat up Bobby Massie. All game. Eric Kush is a journeyman at Guard. He, too, can be moved backwards and he'll have his hands full with the physical Packers DL. Cody Whitehair has a gifted Center. He anchors well and is solid in the run game. Kyle Long is a superstar when he's healthy. I expect the Packers to be able to win the line of scrimmage against the Bears.

It'll be an interesting chess war between Mike Pettine and Matt Nagy. Neither will have any idea of what to expect. We'll see who is the sharper mind in Week 1. If Nagy outwits Pettine, the Bears could be in position to pull off the upset. If Pettine can fool the Bears young QB and force him into a couple of mistakes, the Packers should win by two scores. I also expect Pettine to design a couple of blitzes that leave a free rusher into the face of Trubisky. Trubisky is elusive. It'll be crucial for the Packers defense to finish plays and to show sure tackling ability.

Defensively, the Bears feel like they're ready to win the line of scrimmage. Akiem Hicks is an animal on the DL. Eddie Goldman and Jonathan Bullard are both high draft picks that are expected to have come of age. Leonard Floyd will be playing with a cast on his hand, but the Bears fully expect their 2016 1st round pick to be able to win with a speed rush around the edge. I question how much of an impact Khalil Mack will be able to make in Week 1, but the Bears should be bullish on his long term prospects. Roquan Smith, the Bears 1st round pick, was arguably my favorite player in the Draft. Danny Trevathan is a head-hunting, trash-talking intense ILB. The Bears have a front 7 that should be disruptive. At CB, I believe the Bears can be beaten and I don't think the Bears can cover the Packers on the outside. Prince Amukamara is an aged veteran who can't run with Davante Adams nor Geronimo Allison. Randall Cobb has had a number of big games against the Bears and I look for him to do the same against Bryce Callahan. Adrian Amos and Eddie Jackson are a young Safety tandem that surprised many last year. They excelled in the secondary.

I'm going to be curious to see how the Bears plan on covering Jimmy Graham. I don't see how they can possibly match-up.

Over the last couple of years, McCarthy has found success running the ball right at the gut of the Bears defense. He's won with physicality and then he's opened up the field and he's let Rodgers go to work. Hell, in Chicago last year, McCarthy won by letting Hundley open up the offense late.

Look for the Packers to give the ball to the 2-time MVP early. Let Rodgers run the no-huddle. 3 WR's. Jimmy Graham. J-Swag Williams. Let's attack with crossing routes. I don't believe the Bears can cover us and if Mack isn't on the field early, it'll be tough to sub him in. And, if he is on the field early, his endurance will be tested. Strategically, I'd look for a free play early.

The Lambeau Faithful arrives early. The fanbase arrives with electricity in the air. Fully anticipating a dominating performance. The fans help the Packers defense get off of the field early.

It's Rodgers to Adams. It's Rodgers to G-Mo. It's Rodgers to Graham for a Lambeau Leap. The place will be rockin'!

But, the Bears will be feisty. They'll be organized. They'll be disciplined. They'll hang tough. Howard will pound away. Nagy will find creative ways to get Cohen in space. Robinson will make a play. The Bears will hang around.

Early in the 4th, with tensions high, Pettine will alter the game. He'll confuse Trubisky. He'll force the mistake. T-Mon capitalizes with a pick.

I know Vic Fangio has had success against Rodgers in the past, but I fully expect the Packers to put up big points this weekend. I look for a much higher scoring affair than what most project.

Packers 34.
Bears 23.

THE BEARS STILL SUCK!

Go Pack Go!

Talkin' S-Mac.
talkins-mac.blogspot.com