My Take -> Preseason Week 4

Greetings, G-Force.

I brought myself back to my 90s living and went to a Dave Matthews Band concert on Saturday night. The show had a monumentally Jazz feel with a heavy dose of funk. Now, I’m living in a reminiscent state of mind and listening to DMB’s “Under the Table and Dreaming” album.

One week after the Packers delivered a preseason performance for the ages, they followed suit with a dud that would leave even the most diehard fan yawning for the final whistle.

Here are my quick vibes from the last week:

Aaron Rodgers is locked in. Rodgers has 6 years to win two more titles. If he does, he will retire as the greatest Packer ever.

Gutekunst means business. Now, Khalil Mack is a realistic possibility as there is cap space clarity to negotiate an extension. If it’s going to happen, it has to happen soon though or he won’t be fit for the season.

I could be wrong, but my gut tells me that Gutekunst doesn’t value the Practice Squad in the same way that TT did. It was telling when McCarthy stated that they weren’t going to hide players in preseason games like they did in the past. TT used to try to stash players away on the Practice Squad for a rainy day. My guess is that Gutekunst wants to show off his talent in hopes of acquiring additional assets in a trade as cut-down day approaches.

Mike McCarthy seems to be happy with the construction of the roster. This comment spoke volumes: “I say young men. We are a little older than I’m used to. Thank you Brian Gutekunst and Mark Murphy.” Clearly, McCarthy's mentality had grown tired of TT's desires to keep the team youthful. McCarthy has to believe that this roster has a better appearance than recent years.

Our 2nd team OL was so porous that it became impossible to assess Hundley or Kizer. The OL unit was so bad that we were unable to see anything from ESB, MVS and Tonyan. Kizer and Hundley has little to no time and had to subconsciously be looking at the pass rush rather than receiving options. Frankly, I can’t blame them. As a result, all excitement for watching MVS, ESB and Tonyan went for naught. MVS and ESB saw targets, but both went without a catch. A week after Tonyan looked like a strong candidate for the 53-man roster, he did not even get a target.

There’s no doubt in my mind that Lance Kendricks thinned our over the offseason. He has added quickness to his game. He looks more fluid. But, dude has to catch the ball.

G-Mo is the clear cut 3rd WR, at this stage. Although it’s highly unlikely that he’d net anyone worthwhile, if there was a shot to trade him for a decent back-up OT; Gutekunst has to at least consider the move. With that said, the Packers have to feel comfortable with him as the 3rd WR.

Trevor Davis has been hurt all preseason. He brings both punt and kickoff return skills. If he proves he’s healthy this week, I wonder if he could be dealt for a back-up OT or a late round draft pick. The Browns would be an obvious target for a trade, but they have the #1 waiver claim spot, so they might hold out on a trade in hopes of claiming him on waivers. At this point, Davis has a shot to still make the team as no one has been able to prove worthy of being a Kick or Punt Returner. MVS and Ty both fumbled kickoffs and Jaire was shaky as a punt returner.

Josh Jackson has played really well in the slot. He’s earning himself regular season playing time right now.

Jaire Alexander. What you saw is what you get. He brings speed, attitude and confidence. He’s undersized and will lose the jump ball. He has great acceleration that will put him in position to intercept passes.

I was happy to see Jah’Mon leading the team in yards and tied for the team lead in receptions.

Devante Mays gets one last chance to make a push for a roster spot this weekend. His climb is steeply uphill. His hike to the roster summit offers no time for switchbacks.

Continuing in the tradition of Packers WRs, ESB showed well as a blocker in the run game.

It was good to see Dillon Day getting work at Guard. He showed the versatility required to make the roster. The play in which he was penalized twice seemed to be extremely unfortunate. It appeared as though he lost his footing in the dirt and it left him in a no-win position.

Reggie Gilbert continues to play with a vengeance. Another really solid game from Gilbert. He’s displaying a wide array of moves. Winning with both force and quickness. His effort has been top shelf.

Kenny Clark looks like he’s ready to have a Pro Bowl year.

Pankey continues to belly up against defenders at the line. He’s showing versatility. He might be earning himself a roster spot.

Mo Wilk gobbles up blockers. It amazes me to see how often he and Clark eat up two blockers on a play.

Montravious Adams continues to shine. He’s the quickest player that we’ve had off of the snap. He knives through blockers. He’s been disruptive all preseason.

Ahmad Thomas showed ok in the pass game, but he’s lost in run support. Oren Burks must be healthy for Week 1. This defense needs him.

In the past, we’ve seen the Packers accumulate late round draft selections as compensatory. Gutekunst’s strategy appears to be different. He was aggressive in FA and he’s added a 6th round pick by slinging his depth for draft day currency. Gutekunst seemingly fleeced the Seahawks for a 6th round pick and, as it stands, he’s staring at 9 all-important picks in the 2019 NFL Draft. It wouldn't surprise me if Gutekunst has 1-2 more trades in him over the next week.

I liked Pipkins. He got caught in a numbers game. The Packers have made significant investments into the CB position. So, Pipkins became expendable.

I like the Morrison acquisition. He brings depth to a position group that was far too light. Give Gutekunst credit for knowing the weaknesses and strengths of an AFC South team. The Colts were weak at CB and heavy at ILB. Prior to the 2016 Draft, I wrote:
“Antonio Morrison, Florida. Round 6-7. Great athlete. Active. Wants it. Finds a thrill in attacking the QB from the inside. When he hits you, he means it. Underrated prospect. A true talent. He could end up being a nice score for someone.” Morrison has played in 31 games and made 19 starts over his first two seasons. He’s a mean dude. He hasn’t been the threat that I imagined on the blitz. But, he did produce more than 100 tackles last year. He found the football. He will bring an attitude to the defense.

I saw an interesting stat prior to the Raiders game that put this teams versatility in perspective. It also showed how different this team is put together compared to previous years:

* 100% of Jah’Mon routes are coming from the perimeter. They’re trying to simplify the game for him. They’re trying to slow the pace of the game down and make him comfortable.

* 70% of MVS routes are from the perimeter. I love him coming out of the slot. A 6-4 WR who is laden with 70’s funk-dancing hips and who runs a 4.37 40 running routes out of the slot? “So, you say you want a revolution?”

* 30% of ESB routes are from the perimeter. Yes, a 6-5 dude is in the slot 70% of the time, wow! It can’t be ignored that he ran a 4.48, too. MM is trying to change the make-up of an NFL offense.

The Packers are going to need both Nick Perry and Clay Matthews to notch 10+ sacks this year.

Here’s how I would build the 53-man roster. This is not a prediction, it’s what I would do it:

QB: (3) Rodgers, Boyle, Kizer. The Packers learned from the Taysom Hill experiment in 2018. They tried to stash him on the practice squad and failed. They won’t let the same thing happen with Boyle.

RB: (3) Williams, Montgomery, RIP. Jones arrives in week 3. We forget how well RIP ran the ball in 2016. He can be used in emergency situations over the first two weeks and is a valuable special teams player.

WR: (7) Adams, Cobb, G-Mo, MVS, ESB, Kumerow, Davis. If I had to, I'd try to find a way to keep 8 WR's. I wouldn't to expose the young WR's to waivers. But, someone needs to be hidden on the IR somehow/someway. I feel comfortable telling Jah'Mon Moore that he came down with a mysterious hamstring injury this weekend and therefore, he is tucked away on the IR for a year.

TE: (3) Graham, Lewis, Kendricks. Tonyan is a tough cut. If Kendricks could net a late round pick, I would likely pull the trigger and keep Tonyan instead.

OL: (9) Bakhtiari, Taylor, Bulaga, Linsley, McCray, Pankey, Day, Bell, Spriggs. This team feels the pain of Madison not making it into camp. He’d have brought valuable depth at Tackle and Guard. Maybe we can stick Murphy on IR to see if one more year of development helps. It can’t hurt and we’ve already invested plenty, so why not? Regrettably, Spriggs is kept. Can’t cut Bell due to his dead money.

DL: (5) Daniels, Clark, Mo Wilk, Adams, Lowry. The best unit on the roster.

EDGE: (6) Clay, Perry, Gilbert, Biegel, Fackrell, Donnerson. Gutekunst needs to be working diligently to find another EDGE player via waivers or trade. Donnerson isn’t ready and Fackrell can’t cut it. But, you need bodies on the EDGE of a 3-4 defense. Especially with Perry and Matthews' injury history. If he can find someone, Donnerson is an ideal practice squad candidate. But, as for now, I'm keeping both Fackrell and Donnerson. And, it pains me as I don't want to have to watch Fackrell failing on the EDGE anymore. At this point, cutting Fackrell would be an emotional decision. I'm fine with that, but there's no one remotely ready behind him.

ILB: (4) Burks, Martinez, Morrison, Thomas. I don't love the depth, but Morrison helps and Jones can offer ILB versatility on passing downs.

CB: (5) T-Mon, House, King, Alexander, Jackson. Whitehead, who I’ve listed as a Safety, can play in the slot, if needed. And, his versatility gives the CB position more depth than what meets the eye. I strongly considered keeping either Goodson or Rollins as a gunner, but I decided against it in favor of the riches at WR and our injury concerns at OLB and OL.

S: (5) HaHa, Brice, Jones, Evans, Whitehead.

ST: (3) Crosby, Scott, Triner.

Practice Squad: (10) If I'm only selecting from the Packers roster, I'm taking these 10 guys: DeAngelo Yancey, Herb Waters, Devante Mays, Joel Bouagnon, Raven Greene, Robert Tonyan, James Crawford, Greer Martini, Joey Mbu, and James Looney.

Here’s my overwhelmingly early 2019 Packers mock draft to kick off the college season. Thus far, I’ve given zero attention to OL prospects and, as always, if I haven’t studied the player myself, I don’t comment. I imagine myself looking at numerous EDGE, ILB, S, and TE prospects throughout the college season.

Round 1a) Jaquan Johnson, S, []_[]. If he checks in at 5-11 as he is listed, he has the makings of being a prototypical playmaking safety. He has no fear of contact. He's a magnet for the football in the way Ed Reed sought the ball. He's highly intelligent. He has sticky hands. He has a nose for creating turnovers.

Round 1b) Noah Fant, TE, Iowa. Do it all prospect. Stretches the seam. Forceful after the catch. Trustworthy hands. Plays with willpower. Lines up next to the tackle and fights to seal the edge. Agile. Can be moved all over the offense. Good quickness. Red Zone threat.

Round 2) Joe Jackson, EDGE, []_[]. Long pass rushing specialist. Disruptive. Not just looking for a sack. He wants the football. A game changer. Shows up when it matters most.

Round 3) TJ Edwards, ILB, WI. Old pro mentality. A gamer. Always around the ball. Leadership presence. Sure tackling machine.

Round 4) Derrick Baity, CB, Kentucky. Long, thin framed outside CB. Highly confident, smack talking CB who permeates attitude. Me against the world persona. Understands 1v1 mental battle. Has mindset required to play the perimeter. Fearless tackler in run game.

Round 5) Caleb Wilson, TE, UCLA. Highley dependable middle-of-the-field target. Reliable hands. NFL height with the frame to get bigger. Plays a little soft with the ball. Doesn't break many tackles. Works the middle of the field like a magician and catches with his hands. Runs routes past the marker. Needs to improve as a blocker.

Round 6a) Oshane Ximenes, EDGE, Old Dominion. Dominates low level football. Turnover machine. Pension for playing in the oppositions backfield. Wins with speed and power against poor competition. Has chance to see his value sky rocket this year.

Round 6b) Marcus Epps, S, Wyoming. A 3-time captain. Mature, confident middle of the field safety. Steps up to deliver blows. Has the leadership, good locker room mentality that Gutekunst targets in roster depth. Plays with active excitement.

Round 7) Mike Edwards, DB, Kentucky. Fashionable demon defender. Best suited to play a slot or even an attacking safety role. An attacking spur. The type of defender that can alter a game plan. Great personality. Playmaker. Game saver. Has mindset to alter games. Has football make-up speed. Tremendous ball skills. Is he big enough?

This week – the Packers travel to Kansas City to close out the preseason. If you haven’t been to a game at Arrowhead, put it on your bucket list. It’s one of the best in the league. Without a doubt.

I expect Tim Boyle – who is likely a lock for the roster – to see most of the snaps. I’d give him every snap. All game.

I anticipate that Gutekunst and McCarthy will want to show off Tonyan and Byrd to see either is attractive enough for the 53-man roster or to see if either can warrant trade value. If Tonyan shows well, Kendricks might become trade bait, too.

I’m pining for our OL to show well enough for the Packers to put Boyle on display. Boyle loves the deep ball and man, I’m craving the chance to see ESB, MVS and Moore flying down the field. We won’t get this chance if the OL can’t protect Boyle.

In limited action, Montravious Adams will continue to dominate the preseason. Reggie Gilbert will do the same.

I don’t want to see any of the top 30 players on the roster. There’s no need for any of them to play.

Look for Donnerson to grab a sack.

Watch Marwin Evans read a route and grab a pick.

The rookie WR’s shine when given the opportunity, but for the most part, both teams are going to try and grind out the clock. There will be mostly run plays to keep the clock moving. As Devante Mays gets his opportunities to earn a spot on the roster, he isn't littered with running room and can't produce enough to be deemed worthy of the 53-man roster.

It's Boyle to MVS for 6!

Packers 23.
Chiefs 20.

Go Pack Go!

Talkin’ S-Mac.
Talkins-mac.blogspot.com