My Take -> Week 4

Greetings, G-Force.

1 win. 1 loss. 1 tie. Yes, 1-1-1 after 3 games. The intent of this blog has always been to aim for an optimistic, yet realistic outlook on the state of the Green Bay Packers Union. On weeks like this, it’s tough to keep the optimistic part at the forefront of my perspective. But, it’s important to remind yourself that the NFL – now more than ever – is a week-to-week league. Who you are this week is not necessarily who you’ll be next week. We live in a parity driven league. Consider this: after three games, the Patriots, Steelers, Falcons, Giants, Packers, ‘queens, Seahawks, and Cowboys all only have 1 win. That’s some NFL firepower that can’t be feeling good about where they stand through 3 weeks.

Prior to the season, I projected the 2018 team to finish 9-7. I held onto hope after two weeks that we were possibly better defensively than I had presumed and therefore, I thought there was a possibility that we could be a 10 win team. Either way, when you’re destined to win 9 games, you’re going to have games like we saw in Washington. If you’re an early season contender who is an 11 or 12 win team, you beat the Skins easily. Sadly, the Packers aren’t the early season contender that we hoped. In order for them to be a contender, we need the OL to stay healthy and we need Aaron Jones to be the clear-cut #1 RB. Jones offers a big-play threat that not many backs in the NFL present. His presence will prevent the opposition from consistently playing with 2-deep safeties.

As I write, I listen to the Greensky Bluegrass show from 9-21-18 from the Ogden Theater. If you don’t have the nugs app, the link for the show can be found here: https://archive.org/details/gsbg2018-09-21.akgmatrix.stearns.flac16. Greensky was in Denver for three nights this past weekend. They were uplifting for the soul post a heartless Packers performance on Sunday night. I’m headed back to WI this weekend. I’m going to celebrate my parents turning 70. I’m going to see Greensky in Milwaukee on Saturday Night – if you aren’t going, you should be. And, I’m going to see the Packers get back into the win column over the Bills. Heading back to Green Bay is always sentimental for me. It’s where I was born. It’s where I was raised. It’s where my roots run deep. At the 9-21-18 show, Greensky played “Tied down.” A great tune. A tribute to their homeland in Michigan. The lyrics towards Michigan remind me of my sensation for Green Bay. “I won’t ever betray my memories tasting other seas and landscapes. These trees are fruit and these dreams are free. I’m tied down to Michigan, there ain’t no home like this one. I’m leaving Michigan, with my heart on my sleeve for the world to steal.” I’m looking forward to getting back to Titletown, U.S.A. And, seriously, if you have yet to see Greensky, make it to the show on Saturday night at the Riverside Theater in Milwaukee. It’s can’t miss music.

Here are my quick vibes from the last week:

The last time we saw the Packers play as poorly as they did on Sunday was in 2016 when they played the Redskins. In Washington. In 2016, we lost 42-24. And, showed little pulse. It was apparent early in the game on Sunday that the Packers were lethargic and unprepared. And, because of it, even though I have remained as big of a Mike McCarthy fan as there is, I have to wonder if he’s nearing his expiration date. With a new offensive coordinator, defensive coordinator and GM; there was supposed to be a new mojo in the locker room. If there is a new mojo, it certainly didn’t show up on the field. That, my friends, falls on the Leader. McCarthy has to own that his team wasn’t ready for a football game. He failed in Washington.

I’m not going to fully jump off of the Mike Pettine bandwagon. But, the early returns have me nail-bitingly worried. It was only the third game in which I’ve seen him coach the Packers defense and I was already able to count how many defenders were coming on the blitz. It looks to me as though the players are telegraphing who is coming and thus, the disguise of the defense is minimized.

Oren Burks’ speed is going to be a welcomed addition to this defense. I hope he sees more playing time this week.

Davante Adams knows how to find the end zone. He smells the goal line with excellence.

With the current design of the Packers hierarchy, I’m not sure who is in charge of determining the 53-man roster. But, be it McCarthy or Gutekunst – whoever it is - he needs to make an in-season statement. Kendricks should be cut. He had a below average preseason and his drop should be intolerable. It’s time to move on. Tonyan should be playing his snaps. At this stage, Kendricks is not doing the Packers any favors.

In the end, Davon House’s best was no longer good enough. Stinks to hear that the dude was hurt. I wish they’d bring up Tony Brown. He has the speed to work as a gunner on special teams. He also has the speed to run on the perimeter.

I like the Breshaud Breeland signing. Breeland brings starting experience and has 4 years of playing experience. He can also play on the perimeter. Early in his career, I thought Breeland struggled in man coverage. I thought he was someone that could be targeted. But, there’s no doubt that he’s improved. He’s become more physical on the outside and he’s learned to turn out of his backpedal. Due to his continued improvement, Breeland had earned a 3-year, $24 million deal prior to the start of the season. The Packers likely got Breeland for a 1-year bargain base deal. Good move by Gutekunst.

I don’t understand why McCarthy isn’t utilizing MVS in the slot and sending him deep down the field. He’d get a free release and I’d have to imagine that he could outrun most, if not all, of the oppositions 4th CB’s. Let’s take a shot to him and see what we have.

Over the first two weeks, Randall Cobb was a wizard after the catch. In Week 3, he couldn’t catch and when he did, he fumbled in a crucial moment.

Aaron Jones should carry the ball 20 times. Early. Often. He’ll take pressure off of the OL and Rodgers. He’s a game changer. I’d also like to see two back formations with Ty Montgomery and Aaron Jones on the field. It’d be interesting to see Montgomery motioning into the slot or out to the perimeter. I can’t imagine that there is a LB in the league that can cover Montgomery on the outside. And, if the defense comes with a safety, it’d open up the middle of the field for Rodgers to adjust at the line of scrimmage.

Geronimo has become a legitimate NFL threat at WR. He’s dependable. He has all of the routes in his toolkit and he’s catching the ball with his hands. He’s been reliable and Rodgers clearly trusts him.

I feel bad for Mo Wilk. I was really excited for him to grow into this defense.

If Bulaga’s injury lingers, the Packers are in big trouble. Jason Spriggs can’t play in this league.

Bottom line: it’s hard to find positives from the game in Washington. But, it’s a September loss. There’s a lot of time to recover. The Packers can’t dwell on it. This week, they play the Bills who are coming off of a dominating performance against the ‘queens in Minnesota. This would be a great rebound win for the Packers and a win to put the ugly drudgery from a week ago behind us.

In this week’s fanspeak.com Packers mock draft, here’s what I ended up with:

Round 1a: Clelin Ferrell, EDGE, Clemson.
Round 1b: Martez Ivey, OT, FL.
Round 2: Josh Allen, EDGE, Kentucky.
Round 3: Kaden Smith, TE, Stanford.
Round 4: Deionte Thompson, S, Alabama.
Round 5: Iman Marshall, CB, USC.
Round 6a: Collin Johnson, WR, Texas.
Round 6b: Kendall Baker, OT, Georgia.
Round 7: Jordan Miller, CB, Washington.

This week – the Bills come to Lambeau. I can’t wait to attend. A trip to Titletown, U.S.A. always brings a sense of joy to the heart. The Bill have to be brimming with confidence. Fresh off of a stunning road victory over the hated ‘queens. The Bills have to carry a sense of belief.

Over the first two weeks of the season, the Bills appeared to be the worst team in the NFL. They seemed destined for the 1st pick of the NFL Draft. In Week 3, they gave Josh Allen the reigns to the offense. They simplified the offense. The Bill ran a number of dump off and swing passes. They made the game easier for Allen. I have to imagine that Shady McCoy will be healthy for this weekend and he could receive 10 targets in the flat. McCoy will be a nightmare for the Packers to tackle in the open field. Chris Ivory is also a powerful back who is tough to bring down in space. The Packers struggled to make open field tackles in Washington. Allen has targets who can beat you deep. Kelvin Benjamin is a big target who can get over the top of a secondary. Zay Jones is also a speedy deep threat. Both will present significant height issues on the long ball – especially if Alexander is working against them. Benjamin is a full 7 inches taller than Alexander. If King can’t go, the Packers will be vulnerable on the deep ball, assuming the Bills are willing to trust Allen. Charles Clay is a reliable option at TE. Clay is smart, sure handed and knows how to find the hole in the defensive zone. The Bills offensive line is the weakest link to their offense. It’s time for Daniels, Perry and Matthews to earn their pay checks.

Defensively, the Bills destroyed the ‘queens offensive front. They had 4 sacks and forced two fumbles. Trent Murphy brings length to the EDGE of the Bills defense. Jerry Hughes brings a speed + power combination that the Packers are desperately striving to find on defense. Kyle Williams is a force on the interior of the Bills defense. Star Lotulelei is a physical demon at DT and Harrison Phillips is a rookie DT with a really high upside. Shaq Lawson, when healthy, is a solid rotation DE. Matt Milano is an overachieving, highly productive LB. He’s all over the field. Lorenzo Alexander is an underappreciated, highly confident strong side LB in the Bills 4-3 defense. Tremaine Edmunds has all of the physical tools, but does he have the smarts to man the middle in the 4-3? I’d target him over the middle in the passing game. If the Packers can protect Rodgers, the 2-time MVP will have a field day. The Bills lack depth in the secondary. Tre’Davious White had a great rookie season and is primed for a solid NFL career. Micah Hyde is a dynamic playmaker. But, Jordan Poyer and Taron Johnson are not up to the task of covering the Packers receiving targets. Neither is Phillip Gaines, who is banged up.

I expect a Lambeau celebration. After another sluggish start, the Packers wake up.

Aaron Jones shows that he’s a mudder, once again. Jones grabs 15 carries and tops 100 yards. The run opens up the pass. Imagine that?!

Rodgers finds Graham for his first TD of the year. Adams also catches a TD this week.

Kenny Clark will show up. I expect Clark to grab a sack this weekend.

Look for Montravious Adams to have some productive snaps this week.

The Lambeau vibrations prove to be too powerful for Josh Allen. This game has the makings of a day in which the Packers defense forces 3 turnovers.

It’ll be fall weather and the Packers get back on track.

I hope to see everyone at Greensky Bluegrass in Milwaukee on Saturday night.

Packers 34.
Bills 13.

Go Pack Go!

Talkin’ S-Mac.
Talkins-mac.blogspot.com