My Take -> Week 1

Greetings, G-Force.

We enter the 2019 season with wild uncertainty. The Packers have a new head coach, a new special teams coach and a 2nd year defensive coordinator who might have as many as 7 different starters from Week 1 a year ago. Each year, I try to project the Packers record. And, for the most part, I’ve been fairly accurate. This year, it’s nearly impossible to do so. It wouldn’t shock me if the Packers won 11 games. It wouldn’t shock me if the Packers won 7 games. My prediction: we watch highly entertaining football, it’s a developmental year and the Packers finish either 9-7 or 8-8. It’s possible that this team needs to learn how to win with all of these new faces — most who have not come from consistently winning programs.

As I start to write, I listen to Jimmy Cliff’s version of “I Can See Clearly Now” in hopes to find some clarity of what lies ahead. I sip a 2017 Elevation Beer Co “Oil Man.” It’s nearly 11% ABV. Thick Stout goodness. Bourbon barrel aged. Potent. Malt coat on the front. Chocolate on the back.

Here are my quick vibes from the last week:

Gutekunst worked hard to try to secure a 10th pick heading into next years Draft. He wasn’t able to secure another pick, but he did get creative in trades to pick up an ILB, Goodson, and to accumulate potential Draft currency for McCray.

Prior to the 2016 NFL Draft, I wrote this on Goodson: “BJ Goodson, Clemson. Round 3-4. Have to love his game. Far from intimidated by anyone. Prideful player. True leader. Commander of the huddle. Forceful in the run game. Decent in the pass game. Can rush the passer from the inside. Might not be a 3-down backer, but definitely can step in on day 1 and play on 1st and 2nd down.”

Props to Gutekunst for parting ways with Kizer. He’s not even close to being ready. He’s also a prime example as to why I can’t be convinced that the Packers should Draft a QB over the course of the next two years.

I’m happy for Sullivan, Lazard, Redmond and Shepherd. They earned spots on the 53 man roster.

Speaking of Shepherd, I can’t help to wonder if he was kept because the Packers didn’t not trust Davis to be healthy. And, because of it, Gutekunst wanted a back up return man on the roster.

At this stage, CB is the richest position on the roster.

The Jace Sternberger injury is a buzzkill. I was overwhelmingly confident that he would make an impact at some point this year. Now, I highly doubt that he will see the field. Brutal. Unlucky.

The Cole Madison story makes me feel good. Mental health is among the most serious issues in America right now. I proudly donate time and money to the Mental Health Center of Denver. It’s heartwarming to see the way both Madison and the Packers handled the last 18 months. Cheers to Madison for raising his hand and seeking help. Thrilled he made the team. Forever pulling for him!!

It feels like the Packers kept the best 53 players that we saw in the preseason. And, because of it, I’m comfortable with the depth at all positions outside of QB, ILB and Tackle.

An interesting schedule quirk that goes in the Bears favor for 2019: the NFC NORTH plays the AFC WEST. The bears get KC and the Chargers at home. Minnesota and Green Bay have to travel for both games. I presume that road games against Oakland and Denver will be much easier than road games at KC and at LA.

I really wish that LaFleur’s first two games weren’t at Chicago and then a home game against Minnesota. Dude better be ready to manage a game because he’s being thrown into the fire. An 0-2 start to the season — with losses to arch rival divisional foes — would likely thwart the year.

The Packers have roughly $16 million in cap room. I hope they use some of it to pay Kenny Clark. With that said, it sure feels like Clark isn’t looking to give any hometown discounts. Blake Martinez’s contract needs to be considered, too.

Here is my weekly Mock Draft:

Round 1.) Trey Adams, OT, Washington.
Round 2.) Khalid Kareem, EDGE, ND.
Round 3.) Colby Parkinson, TE, Stanford.
Round 4.) Zack Moss, RB, Utah.
Round 5.) Khaleke Hudson, ILB, Michigan.
Round 6.) Bradlee Anae, EDGE, Utah.
Round 7.) Pat Bethel, DL, []_[].
Round 7.) Asmar Bilal, ILB, ND.
Round 7.) Lee Autry, DL, Mississippi State.

To kick off the NFL’s season, it’s the Packers at the Bears. Could it be more fitting? The NFL’s oldest rivalry squaring off to launch the season. The hated Bears in Week 1. Man, why does the NFL have to give me such stress to begin the year? In an interesting twist – when you consider the last decade – it’s the Bears who are considered a Super Bowl contender and the Packers who are a team full of uncertainties. The Bears have an ascending coach, a young QB on his first contract, a dominant defense and playmakers at the skill positions. On paper, they appear to be a team that’s poised to, once again, win the Division. If I were a Bears fan, anything other than a trip to the NFC Championship would be considered a disappointment in 2019. I give the Bears credit for following the 1st contract QB recipe for success.

The Bears have surrounded their young QB with a good mix between FA acquisitions and draft picks. Anthony Miller and Riley Ridley are both skilled up and coming receivers. Allen Robinson is a top level perimeter WR. Taylor Gabriel is a talented slot WR. Cordarrelle Patterson is not only a lethal kick returner, but he’s a versatile offensive peg that can be utilized in a wide variety of ways. He’s historically done significant damage to the Packers. The Bears OL also appears to be better than years past with Leno and Massie manning the ends. Cody Whitehair was moved to guard as James Daniels will get the start at Center. When healthy, Kyle Long is still a force at Guard. Trey Burton is an athletic TE option who makes plays in the passing game. The Bears also have a good range of running back styles. Cohen is a video game with the ball in his hands, Montgomery is a do-it-all style of back and Mike Davis is a bruiser.

It’ll be interested to see how the Bears defense adjusts without Fangio. They still have an imposing defensive front. Akiem Hicks is among the best DT in the game. Eddie Goldman is a forceful early down player. Roy Robertson-Harris is a worthwhile pass rushing interior player. Bilal Nichols has developed well. Khalil Mack and Leonard Floyd make up an elite duo. At ILB, Danny Trevathan and Roquan Smith are among the best tandems in the game. The secondary is the question mark. Kyle Fuller had a phenomenal 2018. How will he follow it up? Prince Amukamara is a descending player. At Safety, Eddie Jackson is a budding superstar. But, he lost his wingman in Adrian Amos. Ha Ha was average over the last 2 years. How will he play for Chicago? Buster Skrine was brought in via FA. Skrine has been a liability, at times, in the past.

I fully expect this game to come down to four things:

· Can Bulaga block Mack? In the past, Mack has dominated Bulaga.
· Can the Packers limit Cohen and Patterson on special teams? In the past, both have made big plays against the Packers.
· Can the Packers defensive front apply pressure without blitzing? The Packers spent big on the Smith Bros. They drafted Gary in Round 1. It’s time for them to pay dividends.
· Can the Packers defense force 2 turnovers? The Bears young QB has been prone to mistakes in the past. He gives the opposition opportunities. It’s up to the Packers to seize the moment!

Look for the Packers to try and establish the run game early. I expect to see Marcedes Lewis helping Bulaga with Mack as an in-line blocking TE. They’re going to try and lean on Mack to wear him down. Since neither team played their starters much in the preseason, so conditioning will most likely be an issue in the 2nd half. Who will be the more fit team? That’ll play a significant role.

Look for LaFleur to use extensive motion in an effort to keep the defense guessing. He's going to look to get the ball into the flat to a WR who is running forward to aid in the ability to gain yards after the catch.

If the Packers can find a semblance of a run game early, LaFleur will quickly look to the play action with the vision of hitting on a shot play.

I see Rodgers connecting with G-Mo for multiple first down receptions on crossing routes. Yes, I expect to see the Packers using the middle of the field. I also expect crossing routes to be a common occurrence as they were in the early days of Mike McCarthy.

I expect Rodgers to hit MVS on a deep ball that quickly puts the Packers in scoring position.

I'm confident that the Packers will have moderate success moving the football. I'm not so confident as to how they'll perform when they get inside the Bears 40 yard line.

Defensively, I envision Za’Darius Smith making his impact felt early and forcing the Bears young QB into a bad decision.

If I were Pettine, I'd have Jaire follow Allen Robinson all over the field. I'd match Tony Brown on Anthony Miller. I'd have T-Mon cover Gabriel. Early in the game, I'd play a lot of man defense as I feel the Packers match up well with the Bears on the outside.

I'd play a lot of dime defense. Trust the front 4 to win their battles. Trust Clark and Lowry to eat up blocks. They'll let Martinez roam free. I'd have Raven Greene mirror the Bears young QB. If he can't use his legs to escape the pocket, it severely limits his ability to move the chains. He can't win a 60-minute game with his arm and decision making. But, if you let him use his legs, he can frustrate you. Especially on third down.

It’ll be a dog fight. A hotly contested battle. And, in the end, Crosby is the difference.

Packers 19.
Bears 17.

Go Pack Go! THE BEARS STILL SUCK!

Talkin’ S-Mac.
Talkins-mac.blogspot.com